Lula, the great survivor, makes history

Meaning:A bellwether is something whose behaviour is a good early sign of what will happen more widely. The word comes from shepherds, who hung a bell on the lead sheep (a wether) so the flock would follow it. In politics, a bellwether state or town is one whose voters tend to land on the winning side, so watching it tells you how the whole country may vote. The article calls Minas Gerais Brazil's bellwether state for exactly that reason.

Meaning:To annul something is to declare officially that it was never valid, wiping it out as if it had never happened. Courts annul marriages and contracts, and in politics a result can be annulled if a body with the power finds it was unfair or illegal. Here Mr Bolsonaro, having lost, says he will try to get the whole election result thrown out, even though the article notes that he himself had asked for the longer voting hours he now complains about.

Meaning:Lavish describes something given or spent in very generous, even extravagant amounts: a lavish party, a lavish gift. It often hints that the generosity goes beyond what is sensible. In the article, Brazil's leaders routinely hand out big benefits before a vote to win favour, and the Economist says Lula's giveaways were generous even by that standard, which could cost the government dearly later.

Civics. In the US, the candidate with the most electoral votes wins, so a crowded field rarely matters. Brazil does it differently. In the first round many candidates compete. If nobody gets more than half the votes, the top two face each other in a run-off a few weeks later, so the winner always has a majority.

That changes the game. Voters whose favourite was knocked out must pick between the finalists or stay home. In this election, the candidates eliminated in round one together held 8% of votes and backed Flávio Bolsonaro, who was already ahead, so Lula looked in trouble. But a run-off is a brand-new contest: Lula had three weeks to change his campaign and win over people who had not voted or had spoiled their ballots (cast them invalidly) the first time. He gained about 10m votes and won 52% to 48%.

A second round rewards the candidate who can persuade the other side's doubters, not just excite their own fans.

When a country holds a run-off, remember that the first-round leader is only the favourite, not the winner.

Economics. When you borrow, you pay interest. A real interest rate is the interest rate after subtracting inflation (the rise in prices), so it shows the true cost of borrowing. If a loan charges 15% and prices rise 5%, the real rate is about 10%, which is very high.

A central bank (the institution that sets a country's key interest rate) raises rates to cool prices when spending runs hot. A government that spends more than it collects has to borrow, and the debt-to-GDP ratio compares what it owes to the size of the whole economy, like comparing a family's debts to its yearly income. When rates are high, the interest on that debt grows heavier, so spending and borrowing feed each other.

That is why the article says Lula should pick a respected finance minister and a credible plan to cut spending: investors lending to Brazil want proof the debt will not balloon. Free-spending promises before the election suggest he might do the opposite, which could keep borrowing costs high.

When you hear that a country's borrowing costs are high, ask how much it owes compared with what its economy earns.